The Meridian Report
By David WasdellThe Meridian document "Global Warning" was written, presented, published and widely disseminated, in the weeks leading up to the G8 summit in July 2005. It stands as an alert to all global citizens independently of that event. The field research and consultation which lay behind that document, brought into sharp focus the critical nature of positive feedback loops in the domain of climate change. Concern about positive feedback processes and their significance for the effectiveness of current strategic approaches to global warming, was widespread. In-depth studies of specific issues have been surfacing for several years, but no clear over-view of the subject could be found. Computer modelling of the multi-dimensional set of non-linear, interlinked phenomena, with its variety of time delays and damping effects, is notoriously difficult. It has more in common with the work on systems dynamics (more usually associated with the literature on "Limits to Growth") than with the complex programmes used to model climate change itself. "The Feedback Crisis in Climate Change" is an attempt to provide the missing strategic over-view. The paper is not a quantified presentation of new research. All the information contained in the document has already been placed in the public domain by the leading climatologists and their scientific institutions. This is an analysis of the structure of the feedback dynamics that control the process of climate change. It includes clear statements of the implications of the new level of analysis for strategic decision-making at every level of our world community. The Report introduces three new perspectives:
There are two Appendices, the first detailing future areas of research, and the second (The Executive Summary) outlines the strategic implications of the Report. The final version will also include full references and notes. In the web-presentation this preface is followed by a full table of contents in which each sub-title has an active link to the appropriate section. Once you have started on the main text, the left navigation frame enables you to access the next and previous sections, as well as giving you the option to return to the full table of contents. The option to continue to next section is also offered at the end of each section. A printer-friendly version in PDF format will eventually be made available. No single person can possibly master the massive information base underlying this Report. I would like to acknowledge my immense debt to the many colleagues across the world whose detailed and painstaking research (often representing many years of work) has enabled the emergence of the synthesis outlined in these pages. The material has been made available in books, in conference proceedings and papers, in journal articles, press releases and web-based sources, as well as in personal correspondence, e-mails and conversations. As one of the "expert reviewers" for the first draft of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Work Group 1, The Science of Climate Change) I have been able to ensure that the Meridian Report has taken account of the best current research available. I am also enormously grateful to the Scientific American for the artwork in figures 1, 5 and 14. Permission to use the material in the final published version of the Report is actively being sought. Rather than wait until the final version is complete, the core text is being made public to coincide with the United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC, Montreal 28 November to 9 December 2005). It is offered as a resource to the many individuals, organisations and institutions currently engaged with the agenda of climate change and its implications for the strategic decision-making of our global community. It is also my hope that readers will alert me to omissions and inaccuracies, help to clarify obscurities in writing, and build working relationships as together we seek to navigate the potentially difficult times ahead. I would welcome your contribution through info@meridian.org.uk. David Wasdell |