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This brief working paper moves away from the world of computer modelling to examine the Vostok
ice-core data for information that could throw new light on the issue of
climate sensitivity. The rate of change
in geological time was comparatively slow, and radiative forcing remained close
to zero. As a result the earth system
responded to insolation changes in a state of near equilibrium. The record therefore affords an indication
of correlation of CO2 concentration with equilibrium temperature. It is important to note that in this paper the CO2 concentration data is seen not as causal of the temperature variation, but as an indicating marker of the equilibrium temperature reached by the whole earth system. The beauty of this approach is that the sensitivity reading includes by definition the equilibrium effects of all the feedbacks and complex dynamic responses currently approximated in the computer models. [2007] Continue with articlepdf version (230 kb) |
